Sunday, March 26, 2023

Exiting Russian / Ukranian positions, chance of invasion not priced in – Deep Worth Investments Weblog

I’ve determined to promote up on most of my Russian / Ukranian shares.


I’m holding on to FEES (Russian Electrical energy grid Yield 8.5%+, P/E <4 and P/B<0.3 (I can take the ache on this), and GAZP as 50% dividend payout information introduced as we speak implies *doubtlessly* a really excessive yield.

I’m more and more involved there shall be an invasion/incursion in Ukraine. This build-up appears lengthy/ sustained for a ‘coaching train’. In the event that they go residence with out doing something Putin will look weak.

I additionally observe final yr their western district held intensive training exercises as well.

He shall be particularly cautious of speak of Ukraine becoming a member of Nato, in Russian phrases that is equal to Canada becoming a member of the Warsaw pact – one thing that may’t be allowed to occur!

To me, army motion just isn’t within the RUB/USD trade charge and isn’t within the worth of shares. So till the mists clear I’ll get out and await readability. There are usually not more likely to be any main optimistic catalysts quickly, so at worst I miss a couple of % of achieve over the subsequent month or two while managing my threat. I’ll even have the ability to snatch a fast, small profit from this, although its actually being carried out for threat minimisation.

Arduous to know the best way to name it – I initially considered this as western scaremongering. This occurs, we obtained many alarmist headlines when Russia began sending bombers in direction of UK airspace. What was by no means mentioned was that NATO by no means stopped testing Russia’s air response (however this will get no press).

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