Sunday, March 26, 2023

My 23 Investments for 2023

Following an annual custom, I’ll attempt to evaluation my present portfolio no less than annually by writing quick summaries for every particular person place.  14 of the 28 positions from final 12 months are nonetheless within the portfolio and I’ve added 9 new positions. That tunover has been primarily pushed by the occasions in 2022, which have modified fundamentals for fairly a couple of of the previous positions, but additionally opened up alternatives for brand new ones. A extra complete Efficiency evaluation will comply with in early January 2023.

A brief consumer information:

My model of investing principally concentrates on 20-30 small/midcap shares that in my view have a very good return/threat profile over the following 3-5 years. A lot of this shares usually are not family names and are unlikely to make spectacular beneficial properties in a single 12 months. A lot of them look fascinating solely after the second or third look. So if you’re on the lookout for a “Sizzling inventory for 2023”, this put up received’t aid you a lot.


The summaries of the earlier years might be discovered right here:

My 28 Investments for 2022
My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

Let’s go:

1. TFF Group (Portfolio weight 8,1%, Holding interval 12,0 years)

TFF is the “Final inventory standing” of the preliminary portfolio from 12 years in the past. It’s a household owned & run oak barrel producer. Has grown nicely over a few years on account of Asian demand for oak aged French wines and opportunistic acquisitions. Whisky barrels have added to  development. After a few years of organically constructing US operations from scratch which required important capital outlay and no gross sales, the primary quarter of the 2022/2023 FY noticed a major enhance in gross sales (+67%) which explains the great efficiency in 2022. No motive to vary a lot other than some rebalancing, “Long run Maintain”

2. G. Perrier (5,0%, 9,8 years)

French, household owned & run small cap, specialist for electrical installations with a robust place in Nuclear upkeep. Good development regardless of financial headwinds. They added a brand new phase in 2021 (aerospace and defence). Though high line grew considerably within the first 9M, the share value was comparatively weak. Again in 2013 I purchased it as an affordable inventory, it turned out to be a nicely run, decently rising firm that compounds nicely. “Long run Maintain”.

3. Thermador (4,4%, 9,5 years)
Thermador is a French primarily based development provide distribution firm. Distinct “outsider model” company tradition with an emphasis on decentralized choice making and common M&A exercise. Thermador began very nicely into 2022, nonetheless development slowed down a bit of in Q2, solely to re-accellerate in Q3. Sadly, I failed so as to add in September when the share traded close to 60 EUR. “Long run maintain”.

4. Admiral (5,6%, 8,4 years)


“Outsider model” direct retail insurance coverage firm. UK primarily based, giant value benefits, founders personal important share positions. A number of development tasks on the way in which. The EU subsidiaries are making excellent progress with an extended development runway in entrance of them. After a really resilient 2021, the inventory suffered considerably in 2022 together with all different UK insurance coverage shares and declined by round -34%. Because of the nature of the enterprise (1 12 months renewal cycle), the speedy rise in claims inflation can solely be handed on with a time lag which harm income to some extent. Additionally Reinsurance may turn into a bit of bit dearer. On the plus facet, Admiral’s aggressive benefits persist and even after the exit of the final founder, the corporate nonetheless appears to be nicely run.  “Long run maintain”.

5. Bouvet (3,8%, 8,4 years)

IT consulting firm from Norway. After I purchased the inventory eight years in the past, the inventory value beforehand had been hit exhausting by the oil value decline, Statoil was the biggest shopper. The enterprise and the inventory confirmed a robust restoration since 2016. I used to be not sure in regards to the inventory in some years however the firm stored rising. In early 2020, I offered half of the place (a lot too early after all). The corporate surprises me very 12 months (+20% Gross sales and EPS in 2022) and wih Norway drowning in Oil and Fuel cash, factor may stay Okay for a while. In comparison with the standard of the enterprise, the inventory will not be too costly. “Maintain”.

6. Companions Fund (4,1%, 7,3 years)

An funding into a fund run by a close friend. Mathias is a “Munger model” investor with a relative concentrated portfolio of “moat” corporations, lots of them from the US. I feel it’s a good complimentary publicity for my funding model and he has been ouperforming my portfolio by some share factors per 12 months till 2022. On the time of writing, 2022 seems like a really unhealthy 12 months. Aside from many “Cathy Woods model” development buyers, I’m 100% positive that the Companions Fund will get well and do nicely over the following 10-20 Years “Long run maintain”.

7. VEF (previously Vostok Rising Finance (1,3%, 3,7 years)


That is the sister firm of Vostok New Ventures (that I offered in 2020), however specializing on Rising Markets Fintech. The fund has a big weighting in Brazil which I discover very fascinating. The administration runs the portfolio extraordinarily affected person and solely invests after they see an actual alternative. The share value obtained hammered in 2022 like many different “listed VCs”, fortunately lower than sister firm VNV. The most important place, Brazilian Fintech Creditas appears to do nonetheless comparatively nicely. Not too long ago I wrote about my doubts that listed Venture Capital has some structural issues. For VEF, I’m nonetheless ready to attend a 12 months or two so as to see how this performs out. “Maintain”. 

8. Sixt AG Choice shares (4,0%, 1,9 years)


Sixt is an organization I’ve been admiring for a very long time however by no means managed to “pull the set off” to purchase. Lastly, in the course of the darkish days of Covid-19, I managed to construct up a place within the cheaper pref shares.

2022 was not a very good 12 months for the inventory value, the inventory lost-36% regardless of a rise in ~40% in gross sales and +60% in EBT. Gross sales and income are actually considerably above pre-Covid ranges. This interprets int ~8x 2022 P/E. Even assuming that 2023 might be a harder 12 months, I nonetheless suppose that Sixt is attractve at this stage. What I’ll by no means perceive is the very fact, that the Pref shares commerce at such a reduction to the widespread shares. I added to the postion throughout my 12 months finish rebalancing. “Long run maintain”.

9. Mediqon AG (0,8%, 2,8 years)


Mediqon is likely one of the  remainders of my “German Basket” try. The corporate tries to place itself as one thing like a “Mini Constellation” or “Mini Danaher” and has established two platforms over which they purchase small enterprise. The corporate once more managed to promote shares to new buyers at excessive share costs, one of many buyers is definitely one of many Rayles brothers who based Danaher. With a market cap of 200 mn EUR, the corporate now additionally may get pleasure from some scale results. “Maintain”.

10. AOC Fund (4,7%, 2,4 years)

active owner logo

My second fund funding. This time into an “activist fund”, most well-known due to its profitable marketing campaign on Stada. They take a fairly concentrated long run method and actively work with/in firm boards. Regardless of the improbable historic efficiency I’m additionally making an attempt to be taught from them. 2022 to date seems like a really sturdy 12 months in relative phrases, supported by certainly one of their giant positions, PNE Wind which mor than doubled in 2022. “Long run Maintain”.

11. Alimentation Couche-Tard (4,5%, 1,9 years)


ACT entered the portfolio in 2021 as certainly one of my only a few “giant cap” investments. It was the uncommon likelihood to get into a top quality compounder at an inexpensive valuation (13-14x trailing PE). The corporate is known for its decentralized, entrepreneurial tradition and glorious capital allocation. After a failed bid for Carrefour, ACT appears to have fallen out of favor with some buyers which opened this chance. In fact there are some points corresponding to the difficulty how EV charging will develop and sure ESG matters (Tobacco gross sales), however general that is one for the long term though it wants cautious watching (EV charging). “Long run maintain”.

12. Meier & Tobler AG (8,1%, 1,5 years)


Meier & Tobler is likely one of the shares I found by way of my “All Swiss Shares” collection. The corporate itself runs a comparatively boring service & distribution enterprise in Switzerland, offering heating and cooling gear and providers to households and firms. The inventory turned low-cost as a result of they bungled a merger with certainly one of their greatest opponents.  In 2022, the inventory took off like a rocket primarily on account of excessive power costs and a number of enterprise from individuals who wish to improve their heating techniques 8heat pumps). I’ve been decreasing the place already two instances by 1/10 because the valuation has reached already the midpoit of my focused vary.  “Maintain”.

13. Schaffner AG (4,1%, 1,2 years)


Schaffner is one other Swiss discovery. It’s a small firm that has undergone a major transition during the last months/years so as to focus on the present pattern in direction of Electrification. The inventory seems comparatively low-cost in comparison with the underlying high quality and reported development charges.  In 2022, general numbers are nonetheless a bit of bit depressed as a result of the small remaining car phase has been struggling, whereas the primary enterprise runs like a “swiss clockwork”. If the corporate could be valued like different comparable Swiss shares, they need to have important potential. “Maintain”.

14. BioNTech AG (2,2%, 1,8 years)


BioNTech was an “inspiration” from the start of 2021. It was meant to be a “guess” each on the founders and the expertise in addition to a hedge towards a protracted Covid-19 pandemic. I offered round 1/3 of the place near peak costs, however I plan to carry BioNTech for the mid-to-long time period as I feel that there’s a respectable likelihood that BioNTech can develop the mRNA platform additionally right into a pipeline towards different ailments, particularly most cancers which was the unique objective of the corporate. The billions in money they made on the Covid vaccine may pace up the method. “Maintain”.

15. Nabaltec (5,7%, 0,9 years)

naba logo

Nabaltec is a small German Specialty Chemical substances firm that I added in February. The timing was clearly not optimum, as, along with nearly all chemical corporations, Nabaltec obtained hit exhausting be the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine, particularly with regard to excessive Oil, Fuel and electrical energy costs. Apparently, Nabaltec managed to lift costs and consequently, elevated the revenue forecast a number of instances in 2022, regardless of some weak spot of their “development story” Boehmit, which is an important a part of EV battery packs. From what I’ve seen to date, Nabaltec is a conservatively run “hidden champion” that can clearly battle with excessive power costs for a while, however managed to date very well.

There’s additionally some “hidden upsides” within the enterprise, corresponding to a strugling US subsidiary which appears to supply now a really fascinating strategic choice. After decreasing the place in early summer season, I used to be fortunate to extend it once more at very low costs. That is clearly a place to look at, however general I’m ready to carry this for a few years so as to notice th full worth. “Maintain”.

16. Photo voltaic Group A/S (4,8%, 0,6 years)


Photo voltaic Goup is the primary results of my “all Danish Shares” collection. It’s a small Danish wholesale firm that gives provides for heating, cooling and different electrical centered parts to craftsmen in Scandinavia and the Netherlands. After “hibernating” for a few years, the corporate has began rising in 2021 and has continued to take action in 2022. The corporate is rising at double digit charges with bettering margins and comparable excessive returns on invested capital (~25%). They’ve raised their 2022 earnings forecast 3 instances.

Possibly I’m overlooking one thing right here (realizing that there might be some damaging impression of a normal housing sluggish donw), however to me it’s a full mistery why this inventory trades at solely 6,8x 2022 P/E.  “Maintain”.

17. DCC Plc (4,6%, 0,1 years)

Dcc logo

DCC is the latest addition to the portfolio. At its core, DCC is a really unglamorous, mid-cap distribution firm working through 3 totally different platforms (Vitality, “Expertise” and healthcare) across the globe and may very well be characterised as “serial acquirer”. Regardless of a particularly sturdy 20 12 months+ monitor file, the inventory fell out of favour and trades at very enticing valuation ranges.

The primary enterprise, (fossile) Vitality clearly has challenges, however DCC is adressing this actively of their startegy. To date, the entry level appears to have been “too early”, however this inevstment clearly wants a while so as to discover out if my case works or not. “Maintain”.

18. Royal Unibrew (4,4%, 0,2 years)

Royal Unibrew logo

Royal Unibrew is the second Danish addition ensuing from my “all Danish shares” collection. What I preferred in regards to the firm is the truth that on high of a really sturdy monitor file, they appear to have a really fascinating decentralized tradition and actually good capital allocation expertise plus high notch reporting. The enterprise as such appears to be a vey secure on and really enticing in comparison with different beverage classes.

It must be seen if they will alter costs as shortly as they predicted so as to neutralize their elevated prices. If that may  be the case, the corporate would have soem important basic upside from depressed 2022 stage. I hope that this can be a stcok that I can maintain long run.“Maintain”.

19. GTT Group (4,1%, 0,8 years)


GTT Group or previously often known as “Gaztransport et Technigaz” is  a French inventory that I bought a second time, right after the Ukraine war started (first time in 2016). The corporate has a fairly distinctive and nearly monopolistic enterprise mannequin in proudly owning the patents on the right way to design and manufacture the inside and isolation of huge LNG carriers. Usually, regardless of the excessive margins and returns on capital, the inventory would have been a lot too costly for my liking, nonetheless the particular circumstances made me set up a “tactical” place within the inventory as a primary beneficiary of the unavoidable development increase in LNG vessels. I already took some income when the inventory was up +50%, within the current weeks, the inventory value was weak because of the ongoing points with Korean authoroties who’re eager to offer an even bigger a part of the “cake” to their native shipbuilders. As a tactical place, this can be a “Maintain however watch carefully”.

20. ABO Wind (3,6%, 0,8 years)

abo logo

ABO WInd is the sole remainder of my tactical “Freedom Energy” basket that I established proper after the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. I stored ABO Wind as a result of in my view, the corporate continues to be considerably undervalued. Their “develop and promote” enterprise mannequin makes it a lot more durable to undertand the true worth creation which in my view is critical.

The corporate is about as much as create important long run worth for shareholders, though it’d take a while till that is totally mirrored of their P&L. market multiples, in an M&A transaction, the intrinisc worth of the enterprise could be considerably increased than the present share value. “Maintain”

21. Rockwool (1,1%, 0,3 years)

Rockwool Logo

Rockwool, a Danish producer of insulation materials primarily based on Rock wool, is a part of my “freedon insulation” basket that I began in Autumn. I made a decision to maintain Rockwool primarily as a result of I feel it’s a “high quality firm” and as well as has supper strong funds. It wants but to be seen how a lot they may endure from a tough actual property downturn, nonetheless within the mid time period they need to clearly profit kind the pattern to insulate buildings and save power. “Maintain & Watch”.

22. Sto SE (1%, 0,3 years)

Sto Logo

Sto SE, the German insulation firm, is the second remaining member of the “freedom Insulation” baskat”. As Rockwool, Sto is financially actually strong and the valuation is reasonable. “Maintain & Watch”.

23. Recticel (0,6%, 0,3 years)

Recticel logo

Recticel is the third remaining insulation firm. I added it in a while after I realized that I missed out on it as an European insutlation firm. Recticel underwent a major transformation and did promote all different enterprise segments apart from insulation. When all of the pending transactions have closed, Recticel seems very low-cost. “Maintain & Watch”.

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